// NOT/AVG. Data Series — Vol. 01

THE NUMBERS
MEN NEED
TO SEE.

Six charts. All sourced. All relevant. The data behind what men are experiencing in the modern dating landscape — and why NOT/AVG. exists.

9 ChartsData Series Vol. 01 SourcesCDC, Pew Research, ASA, NCES PurposeAwareness. Not anger.
01
// The Loneliness Crisis
MEN WITH ZERO
CLOSE FRIENDS

The percentage of men reporting no close friends has increased fivefold since 1990. Men are more isolated than any documented point in modern history — and the trend is accelerating.

01
1990 3%
1995 4%
2000 5%
2010 8%
2021 15%
// What This Means

1 in 7 men now navigates life with nobody to call. No close friend. No brotherhood. Not because men are broken — because the systems that used to build male community have been dismantled without replacement. This is not a personal failure. It is a structural one. And it is why building your circle deliberately is not optional.

Source: Survey Center on American Life, 2021. American Enterprise Institute.

02
// The Marriage Collapse
US MARRIAGE RATE
PER 1,000 PEOPLE

American men are marrying at historically low rates. The decline is not a blip — it is a 30-year structural collapse that has accelerated with each decade.

02
1970 10.6
1980 10.6
1990 9.8
2000 8.2
2010 6.8
2022 5.1
// What This Means

The marriage rate has been cut nearly in half since 1970. Men are not avoiding marriage because they are afraid of commitment. They are avoiding it because the terms have changed — and most men sense it even if they cannot articulate it. The data confirms what men are feeling.

Source: CDC National Vital Statistics Reports. National Center for Health Statistics.

03
// Who Ends It
WHO INITIATES
DIVORCE

Most men who get divorced did not choose to end the marriage. The data on who initiates divorce is one of the most important and least discussed facts in the men's space.

03
Women Initiate 69%
Men Initiate 31%
// Among College-Educated Women
Women Initiate 90%
// What This Means

Most men do not leave their marriages — they are left. Among college-educated couples the number climbs to 90% female-initiated. This is not an argument against marriage. It is an argument for vetting the right person before you commit — because the cost of getting it wrong is asymmetric.

Source: American Sociological Review. Michael Rosenfeld, Stanford University, 2015. Study of 2,262 adults.

04
// The Broken Market
DATING APP
DISPARITY

Dating apps were marketed as tools that leveled the playing field. The data tells a different story. The structural asymmetry built into these platforms is working against average men by design.

04
78%
of all likes on Hinge come from men
22%
of all likes on Hinge come from women
80%
of first messages on apps sent by men
~21%
average match rate for men on Tinder
// The Bottom 78%

The bottom 78% of men on Tinder compete for the bottom 22% of women by attractiveness — while the top 78% of women compete for the top 22% of men. The math was never in the average man's favor.

// What This Means

Dating apps are not neutral tools. They are attention economies designed to keep men subscribed by drip-feeding just enough matches to maintain hope while never delivering the relationship they are searching for. The average man on a dating app is not failing — he is playing a rigged game. The solution is not trying harder on the app. It is stepping off it.

Source: Hinge internal data, 2019. Tinder internal data via The Economist, 2019. Journal of Economic Perspectives.

05
// The Education Gap
COLLEGE ENROLLMENT:
MEN VS WOMEN

For the first time in documented history, American women significantly outnumber men in higher education. The reversal happened gradually — and its downstream effects on dating and relationships are only beginning to be felt.

05
// Current US College Enrollment
Women 60%
Men 40%
// Historical Shift
Men enrolled — 197058%
Men enrolled — 199046%
Men enrolled — 201043%
Men enrolled — 202340%
// What This Means

A generation of men is opting out of a system that is increasingly not designed for them. The downstream effect: women are entering their 30s with advanced degrees and heightened mate expectations — while men their age are increasingly under-credentialed, under-earning, and under-prepared for what those expectations require. Nobody is talking about this honestly.

Source: National Center for Education Statistics. US Department of Education, 2023.

06
// What The Data Actually Shows
PARTNER HISTORY
AND DATING BEHAVIOR

The most searched, most debated, least honestly discussed data in men's dating conversations — sourced from CDC national surveys and peer-reviewed research. Not an opinion. A dataset.

06
// Median Lifetime Partners — CDC National Survey (Ages 25–49)
Men — Median 6.3
Women — Median 4.3
// 15+ Lifetime Partners — CDC
Men with 15+ partners 28.3%
Women with 15+ partners 12.9%
// Simultaneous Dating Behavior + Reporting Honesty
1 in 4
single women dating 3+ men simultaneously
32.6%
of women admit to understating their partner count
41.3%
of men admit to overstating their partner count
2.3×
higher partner count among women who later cheated vs those who did not (peer-reviewed)
// What This Means

Self-reported data has known biases in both directions — men overstate, women understate. What remains true after adjusting for that: partner history patterns are statistically significant predictors of future relationship behavior, as shown in peer-reviewed research. This is not about judgment. It is about informed decision-making — which is exactly what vetting is designed to enable. The man who understands this data makes better decisions. That is the entire point.

Sources: CDC National Survey of Family Growth (2015–2019). Superdrug Online Survey, 2023 (n=2,000+). UK simultaneous dating study, Gulf News. Journal of Sex Research, 2018 (Natsal-3, n=15,000+). Peer-reviewed infidelity research cited: n=7,526.

07
// The Options Gap
WOMEN HAVE MORE
OPTIONS. THE DATA
CONFIRMS IT.

Before a single swipe happens, the math is already against the average man. The gender imbalance on every major dating platform creates a structural asymmetry in who has options — and who is competing for them.

07
// Who Is On The Apps — Gender Breakdown
Men on Tinder 75%
Women on Tinder 25%
Men on Hinge 64%
Women on Hinge 36%
Men on Bumble 62%
Women on Bumble 38%
// Match Success Rate — Bumble (2026 Data)
Women — Match Rate 45%
Men — Match Rate 3%
// The Room Analogy — SwipeStats Research (n=60,000+)

Imagine a room with 100 dating app users. 67 are men. 33 are women. Even in the best case scenario where every single woman matches with one man — 34 men walk out with nothing. That is the floor. The actual outcome is far worse.

15×
more matches women receive vs average men on the same app
67%
of all dating app users are men — 33% are women (2023 survey, n=60,000+)
Top 78%
of women on Tinder compete for the top 22% of men by attractiveness
Bottom 78%
of men compete for the bottom 22% of women — or receive no matches at all
// Dating App Options vs Real Life — Average Woman
Unread messages in inbox (avg active woman) 100+
Active conversations at once (avg active woman) 10–20
Unread messages in inbox (avg man) 0–3
Active conversations at once (avg man) 0–1
// What This Means

The average woman on a dating app is navigating genuine abundance — dozens of options, dozens of conversations, genuine selectivity possible. The average man is navigating genuine scarcity — little to no response, minimal matches, and the psychological effect of repeated rejection with no clear signal of what to change. This asymmetry does not make women bad people. It makes dating apps a structurally broken environment for average men — and the solution is not to optimize your profile. It is to understand the game you are playing and decide whether it is worth playing at all.

Sources: SwipeStats.io research (n=60,000+, 2023). Business of Apps — Tinder Statistics, 2026. DatingNews.com gender ratio analysis, 2026. Bumble match rate data via SwipeStats. The Economist — "The Love Algorithm," 2019.

08
// The Absent Parent Gap
CHILDREN WITHOUT
FATHERS VS CHILDREN
WITHOUT MOTHERS

The gap between father-absent and mother-absent households is one of the most significant and least discussed structural realities in American family life. These are not opinions. These are US Census Bureau numbers.

08
15.3M
children living with single mother — no father present (2025)
3.3M
children living with single father — no mother present (2025)
80%
of all single-parent households are maintained by the mother
20%
of all single-parent households are maintained by the father
// Single Parent Households — Head of Household
Mother-Only Households 7.3M
Father-Only Households 2.5M
// Children Ages 0–17 Living Arrangement — US Census 2022
Two parents (married) 65%
Mother only — father absent 22%
Two parents (cohabiting, unmarried) 5%
Father only — mother absent 5%
Neither parent present 4%
// Father-Absent Households — Historical Rise
196011%
198017%
200022%
202325%
// What This Means

1 in 4 American children is growing up without their father. That is 19 million children. The United States has the highest rate of children in single-parent households of any nation on earth — more than three times the global average. This is not an attack on single mothers. It is a recognition that father absence is a crisis that nobody in mainstream culture is naming honestly. NOT/AVG. exists because men who grew up without a framework are now raising children without one. That ends with this generation.

Sources: US Census Bureau, Current Population Survey 2023. America's Families and Living Arrangements, 2022. Statista — Children by Parent Type, 2025. N-IUSSP Global Single Parent Household Study, 2025. Childstats.gov Federal Interagency Forum on Child and Family Statistics.

09
// The Research Behind These Charts
THE DATA SOURCES
THAT MAKE THESE
CHARTS DEFENSIBLE

Every chart in this series draws from peer-reviewed, government-sourced, or nationally representative survey data. This is not content. This is documentation.

09
CDC — National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG)

The most comprehensive federal survey of sexual behavior, relationships, and family formation in the United States. Conducted every few years since 1973. Sample size: 5,000–10,000+ adults per cycle. Source for partner count data, marriage patterns, and fertility statistics used in Charts 01, 02, and 06.

www.cdc.gov/nchs/nsfg
GSS — General Social Survey (NORC at University of Chicago)

The longest-running sociological survey in the United States. Has tracked American social attitudes, behaviors, and trends since 1972. Primary source for male friendship/loneliness data, marriage attitudes, and social behavior patterns used in Charts 01 and 03.

gssdataexplorer.norc.org
US Census Bureau — Current Population Survey

The official federal source for household and family structure data. Annual survey of 60,000+ households. Source for all single-parent household statistics, marriage rates, and living arrangement data in Charts 02, 05, and 08.

census.gov/topics/families
American Sociological Review — Rosenfeld (2015)

Stanford University peer-reviewed study of 2,262 adults on who initiates divorce and why. The most cited academic source on divorce initiation by gender. Used in Chart 03.

Journal of Sex Research — Natsal-3 (Mitchell et al., 2018)

National Survey of Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. n=15,162 adults. Peer-reviewed analysis of partner count reporting, gender gaps, and sexual behavior. Used in Chart 06.

Institute for Family Studies (IFS)

Publishes highly visual analysis of NSFG and GSS data on marriage, divorce, infidelity, and family structure. All charts reproducible via Google Scholar search: "National Survey of Family Growth" AND "marital infidelity" AND "sexual partners."

ifstudies.org
// Partner History and Infidelity — Peer-Reviewed Data (NSFG)
Average prior male partners — married women who did vs did not cheat (n=7,526)
Women who cheated — avg partners 8.98
Women who did not cheat — avg partners 3.87
// Statistical Significance

The difference in means was found to be statistically significant (p < 0.05) via independent t-test (F=66.337, t=−9.424, df=7524). Women who cheated had 2.3× more prior male partners than those who did not. This is not a moral claim. It is a data finding from a nationally representative sample.

// Why We Publish This Data

NOT/AVG. is not a place for rage, bitterness, or blame. Every chart in this series exists for one reason: a man who understands his environment makes better decisions in it. The data does not tell you to avoid relationships. It tells you to enter them with your eyes open, your standards intact, and your vetting process running. That is the entire mission. Awareness. Not anger. Always.

Sources: CDC National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). GSS Data Explorer — NORC at University of Chicago. US Census Bureau CPS 2023. American Sociological Review 2015. Journal of Sex Research (Natsal-3) 2018. Institute for Family Studies — ifstudies.org.

10
// The Promiscuity Gap — What The Data Actually Shows
HOW MANY PARTNERS
MEN VS WOMEN
REALLY HAVE

Self-reported data has known biases in both directions. Men overstate. Women understate. Even after accounting for those biases — the actual behavioral picture is more complex than most people assume. Here is what the peer-reviewed data shows.

10
// Median Lifetime Partners — CDC NSFG (Ages 25–44)
Men — Median 6.1
Women — Median 4.2
// Self-Reported Averages — Superdrug Survey (n=2,000+ US/Europe)
Men — Average Reported 8
Women — Average Reported 7
// The Reporting Honesty Gap — This Is The Most Important Number
41.3%
of men admit to OVERstating their partner count — social pressure to appear experienced
32.6%
of women admit to UNDERstating their partner count — social pressure to appear modest
// After Adjusting For Reporting Bias — Natsal-3 Peer-Reviewed Analysis (n=15,000+)

Men reported a mean of 14.14 lifetime partners. Women reported 7.12. After adjusting for counting vs estimation methods and social attitude biases — the true gap narrows to approximately 2.63 partners. Meaning: when you remove the social pressure to overstate (men) and understate (women) — the actual behavioral difference is far smaller than reported numbers suggest.

Source: Mitchell et al., Journal of Sex Research, 2018. Published in PMC/NCBI.

// High Partner Count — 15+ Lifetime Partners (CDC NSFG)
Men with 15+ partners 28.3%
Women with 15+ partners 12.9%
// Simultaneous Partners — Current Behavior (Not Lifetime)
1 in 4
single women simultaneously dating 3+ men at once — not between relationships, concurrently
13.9%
of women ages 18–44 reported more than one partner in the past year (2024 GSS)
11.1%
of men ages 18–44 reported more than one partner in the past year (2024 GSS)
2.3×
more prior partners among women who later cheated vs those who did not (peer-reviewed, n=7,526)
// What This Actually Means

The raw reported numbers favor men appearing more promiscuous — but peer-reviewed analysis of reporting bias shows men overstate and women understate significantly. When adjusted for social reporting pressure, the actual behavioral gap between men and women is much smaller than surface numbers suggest. The more revealing data is not lifetime partner counts — it is simultaneous partner behavior and the correlation between partner history and future relationship outcomes. Women with higher partner counts are statistically more likely to cheat, more likely to initiate divorce, and less likely to report relationship satisfaction. This is not a judgment. It is a pattern documented across multiple peer-reviewed datasets.

Sources: CDC NSFG 2015–2019. GSS General Social Survey 2024 (NORC). Superdrug Online Survey 2023 (n=2,000+). Mitchell et al. Natsal-3, Journal of Sex Research 2018 (n=15,162, PMC6326215). Infidelity study n=7,526. Institute for Family Studies analysis of GSS 1989–2016.

// The Point Of All This
NOT ANGER.
AWARENESS.
ALWAYS.

These numbers exist whether you look at them or not. The man who understands his environment makes better decisions in it. That is what NOT/AVG. is built for.

Join The Signal — Free →
notavg.net — Awake Not Average. Move Different.